| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | L | USC | 13-73 | 1511.0 | -19.3 | 1491.7 | 28.7% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Marshall | 21-20 | 1491.7 | +65.2 | 1556.9 | 29.4% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | SMU | 10-28 | 1556.9 | -34.6 | 1522.3 | 33.3% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | UT Martin | 42-10 | 1522.3 | +0.0 | 1522.3 | 53.2% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | Western Kentucky | 22-27 | 1522.3 | -55.0 | 1467.3 | 57.2% |
| 8 | Oct 8 2025 | W | Middle Tennessee | 22-20 | 1467.3 | +16.9 | 1484.2 | 84.7% |
| 10 | Oct 22 2025 | W | New Mexico State | 24-17 | 1484.2 | +20.8 | 1505.0 | 80.9% |
| 11 | Oct 29 2025 | W | Florida International | 28-21 | 1505.0 | +10.6 | 1515.6 | 83.5% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | W | Liberty | 21-17 | 1515.6 | +39.4 | 1555.0 | 61.4% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | UTEP | 38-24 | 1555.0 | +5.1 | 1560.1 | 91.9% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | Kennesaw State | 34-41 | 1560.1 | -55.4 | 1504.7 | 72.0% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | Louisiana Tech | 30-42 | 1504.7 | -69.9 | 1434.8 | 77.2% |
| 18 | Dec 18 2025 | L | Arkansas State | 28-34 | 1434.8 | -42.7 | 1392.1 | 50.2% |